1. Reggie Bush will NOT rush for 200+ yards - Reggie Bush is a good runner, but he's not been that type of guy for the Saints this year. He will get some yards, probably more than normal because the Colts will be defending pass first most of the game. But calling for him to have 200+ yards and a 42 yard punt return TD ( I seriously doubt that McAfee only punts one 42) is a little far fetched.
2. The Saints will have 500 yards total offense - Again the Saints have a very high powered offense, but Manning by himself will more than likely keep the Saints from 500+ yards, especially if the Colts do score 31. Manning milks the clock like no-one ever have or ever will. The Colts can go 3 and out and Manning will find a way to run close to 3 minutes off the clock (and the Colts don't get 3 and outs very often, even in the playoffs where they've faced two of the top defenses in the NFL). Manning will take his time and stretch out Colts possessions to their max. Brees and Company will show off their offensive prowess in this game, but no where near the tune of 500 yards.
3. Madden can't simulate learning - Both teams have had 2 weeks to prepare for everything the other team may show them. They both have prepared a couple of curveballs as well. In this game you have 2 of the smartest QBs in the league, Manning being quite possibly the smartest of all time. Both QBs will make adjustments as the game progresses. The defenses also will be making changes (especially on the off chance Bush hits the 200 yard mark). As much as I love Madden, it cannot simulate the cat-and-mouse that will take place during this game.
Now if you want to put your money on the Saints because of this simulation, be my guest. But my pick is the Colts, if for no reason other than #18. Like the ESPN anchors talked about after the AFC championship, you can keep Manning down for 2, maybe 2.5 quarters, but then he's going to figure out whatever you are doing and then beat you. So unless the Saints can create an impassable lead, like bigger than the one the Patriots blew earlier this year, (which considering the way the defense has played lately, i wouldn't bet on that happening), my moneys ganna be on the Colts